New artists and musicians usually come face to face with this law of psychology early in their careers without ever knowing it. It's The Dunning Kruger Effect. The Dunning Kruger effect can be defined as a cognitive bias 'in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities'. It basically means the less you know, the more confident you are, hell of a paradox right?
Let me tell you a funny story about my experience with this early on in my DJ career. I had been producing for about 1 year. In 2010 I decided to enter a Tiesto Remix contest. I loaded the stems in Ableton, finished what I thought was a pretty good remix and submitted it. For some reason I thought I had a really good shot at winning the contest. They announced the winners, and of course I didn't win. I was SHOCKED that my remix didn't make the cut. I thought for sure I had a chance! Looking back my remix was TERRIBLE and I was so naive to even think I had a chance. Now why? The Dunning Kruger Effect! I had no clue what my realistic ability was to create a professional quality song was. I was at the "Peak of Naivety". (see drawing below)